At the 2018 NHL Draft, the Maple Leafs made a bit of an odd, but relatively small move. They had no pick in the 6th round of 2018 going into the draft, but they later acquired one, trading their own 2019 6th round draft pick to Buffalo in exchange for Buffalo's 2018 6th rounder, which happened to be the first pick of the 6th round.
With that pick, the Maple Leafs selected Swedish C Pontus Holmberg. In the 2017/18 season, the overager had recorded 20 points in 36 games with VIK Vasteras in Division 1 (Sweden's third tier mens league), 11 points in 12 games in SuperElit (Sweden's top junior league), and 0 points in 2 SHL games (Sweden's top league). Other than those numbers, there really was not a whole ton of information out there on Holmberg, leaving many people to deem this pick a "I dunno, let's wait and see" type pick.
Fastforward to today, and Holmberg has scored two goals and three assists, which tallies up to 5 points in a total of 15 SHL games (0.33 points per game). He's been playing in the middle six with Vaxjo, averaging 14:22 of ice time per game. He is also slated to attend the Four Nations tournament this month, which signifies that Sweden's coaches see him as a potential candidate for a job on the World Juniors squad this January. It has been a pretty solid start to the year for the 19-year-old SHL rookie, and when you look deeper into the numbers his start has been even more promising.
Advanced Stats
Among all players with 10+ games played in the league this season, Holmberg places first in shot attempt differential (commonly know as Corsi For%). With Pontus on the ice, Vaxjo has outshot their opponents by a score of 176 to 93, giving him a 65.43 CF%. While Holmberg himself is not generating a ton of shots (he has just 22 in 15 games played), it's encouraging to see that his line is spending a ton of time in the offensive zone. I would not be too concerned with his individual shot totals, as it is evident in the numbers that he is much more of a playmaker than he is a shooter (his goals to assists ratio over the last four seasons is 40:77). Something else to remember about these possession numbers is that they do not mean that Holmberg is the best forward in the SHL. He has been playing sheltered minutes, as mentioned before. A 65% Corsi against third lines is much less impressive than a 65% Corsi against top competition. What it does mean, though, is that Holmberg has been really effective in the role assigned to him this season, which is exactly what you hope to see from a depth forward.
So, if he's spending all of this time in the offensive zone and he's such a playmaker, why does he only have 3 assists? Well, in this case Holmberg could use some more puck luck. He has an on-ice shooting % of just 5.68%, which is low. If he can continue to drive play, eventually his on-ice shooting % will see some positive regression, and he will start to get some more points.
Still, for someone that is not very well-versed in the world of prospects, I can see why these numbers might not appear all that impressive. The thing about them, though, is that the deeper you dig, the more impressive this late round gamble looks for Toronto.
Comparables
You may have heard about the 51% rule (if you have not, you can read about it here). After Holmberg's impressive start I was inspired by that rule to see if I could uncover anything similar with 19 year-old SHLers. I looked at all SHL players (minimum 10 games played) that had a points-per-game of 0.2-0.39 in their 19 year old season. I wanted this study to be recent, so I used every season from the 2000/01 season to the 2014/15 season. As a reminder, Holmberg is 19 years old right now and has a 0.33 points per game in 15 SHL games played. Here is what I found:
Players who scored at a 0.3-0.39 points per game clip:
53.33% made the NHL, 53.33% played at least 50 games in the NHL, and 40% played 100+ games in the NHL. Some noteable players: Loui Eriksson, Frans Nielsen, Jakob Silvferberg, Arturri Lehkonen
Players who scored at a 0.2-0.39 points per game clip:
39.47% made the NHL, 10.53% played at least 50 NHL games, and 7.89% played 100+ NHL games. A noteable player: Viktor Arvidsson
*among those considered to have 50 NHL games played is 23 year old Hurricanes C Lucas Wallmark, who is currently 17 games away from 50. Among those considered to have 100+ NHL games is 24 year old Oskar Sundqvist, who is currently playing for St.Louis and is 25 games off 101.
So, in short, if Holmberg continues at his current rate or even if his PPG slightly drops, recent history likes his chances of making the NHL, and playing at least 50 games. This is especially promising when you consider that his points per game looks like it should only rise, given the bad shooting luck and promising shot metrics mentioned earlier. However, this does not mean we should go all Semyon Der-Arguchintsev on him and have these incredibily lofty expectations for him that he will in all likelyhood not live up to. Nothing is certain with any prospect, and 47% of Holmberg's statistical comparables still did not even play a single game in the NHL. 6th round picks are not supposed to turn out, anyways. That being said, I think that if you're getting a player with even a decent chance at making it in the late rounds, you've done a very nice job.
Highlights!
Now that I'm done boring you with numbers that you may or may not find interesting, let's watch some highlights of our new friend Pontus.
Here is his first goal in the SHL. Great play by Dominik Bokk behind the net who centres to Holmberg, and Holmberg roofs it.
Here is his second goal in the SHL. Nice job by Holmberg to take the pass in stride and quickly release a snapshot past the goaltender.
Real smart play on this goal to fake a slapshot to throw the goalie off, then deliver the slap-pass in front onto his teammate's tape for a tap-in.
Another primary assist for Holmberg. He dishes this one cross-crease right over the opposing defender's stick and perfectly onto his teammate's tape, who does a nice job waiting out the goalie and eventually scoring.
Conclusion
To wrap it up, late round picks typically don't amount to much, but it would really help the Maple Leafs, who are set to go through a bit of a cap crunch in the next few years, if they could get some good players that don't make a lot of money. One way to do that is through the draft, stealing guys in the later rounds. While I feel comfortable saying that Pontus Holmberg isn't the next big star in Toronto, I feel like this under-the-radar pick is one that is looking really nice right about now, and not many people know about it yet.
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