It's been a breakout year for Maple Leafs' star winger Mitch Marner.
The 21 year old has put up 92 points in 80 games played so far this season, blowing his previous season high of 69 out of the water.
Because of this, the vast majority of the Toronto fanbase absolutley adores him. I don't think it's possible to call him underrated at this point (some people out there think that he is the best player on this team), but one aspect of his game that I don't think is talked about enough is his penalty killing.
Mike Babcock made the decision at the start of this season to put Marner on the penalty kill way more than ever before, and it's safe to say that that decision has payed off very nicely. His results to this point have been simply elite.
Defensive Game
When most fans think about Mitch Marner, they think about his elite vision, his elite passing ability, his jaw-dropping dangles, and his highlight reel offensive plays.
We'll get into all of that later, because it is certainly very special, but first I want to talk about how good he's been defensively at 4v5 this season.
As you can see here from these numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Marner's defensive on-ice numbers this season are amazing. Keep in mind, by "League Rank" I mean that he has given up the 5th LEAST amount of shot attempts per 60 minutes among NHL forwards this year, NOT the 5th-most. That would be bad. Marner has been a top-5 forward in the NHL at limiting shots attempts, unblocked shot attempts, and shots against at 4v5 this season. He's also in the top-10 at limiting scoring chances against.
It's important to keep in mind that no Leafs forwards rank ahead of him in any of these stats. He is the best Toronto forward at defending on the penalty kill this year. Here is how all of Toronto's regular penalty-killing forwards faired this season in terms of limiting shot attempts, unblocked shot attempts, shots, and scoring chances:
Marner seems to be the best forward the Leafs have in terms of defending on the penalty kill. He leads in every single stat shown here. Again, keep in mind that it is a good thing to have a LOW number here. You want to allow a low number of shots, not a high number of shots. It makes sense because as I showed earlier, he is one of the best in the league at limiting shots and chances on the PK.
Offensive Game
If you're like me, you recognize that while defence is important, it's also boring. Let's get into the fun stuff!
Just like his defensive numbers, Mitch Marner's offensive numbers on the penalty kill this season are extremely good. Here they are:
As you can see here, I used the same numbers for defence as I am using here for offence, however I am obviously using Corsi/Fenwick/Shots/Scoring Chances "for" rather than against. Just a reminder, it is good to have a HIGH total here, as it is obviously a good thing to generate a lot of shots FOR as opposed to not many shots for. These numbers are, once again, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Marner's numbers are as elite. He's top-4 in the league in all but one category, including first in Scoring Chances For. The one category he is not top-4 in is Shots for per 60, but he still ranks 7th, which is very good.
If we take a look at his numbers beside his teammates' numbers, Marner shines once again.
He once again ranks first among regular Toronto penalty killers in every single stat.
Looking at the offensive and defensive numbers, we can draw the conclusion that Marner is an elite penalty killer, and the Leafs' best. But why is that?
Video Analysis
Now, I'm a person who likes to try to bridge the eye test with the statistics. I understand that not everybody understands analytics, and not everybody believes in them. I also just like watching video. With that said, let's take a look at some video of Mitch Marner's game on the penalty kill this year, and what makes him so effective.
One of the main reasons why Marner is such a good penalty killer is his ability to generate takeaways, like so:
As you can see, Marner anticipates plays at a very high level. This is one of the main reasons why he is such a puck thief. Just ask Tampa Bay Lightning head coach John Cooper, who said this about Marner the other day:
"He knows where the puck's going before the puck knows where it's going"
I'd say that that is an extremely accurate analysis of Mitch Marner's anticipation and smarts. Here’s another example:
In both of the clips that I've shown, Marner is able to take the puck away from the opposition because he anticipates where the puck is going, and he’s in good position.
Then, when you factor in his high-end speed, vision, playmaking, creativity and hands, you have a player that can absolutely wreak havoc in shorthanded situations. He can get the puck back as I just explained, and his skill makes him a lethal threat on breakaways and on odd-man-rushes. Here’s an example:
Marner blocks a shot, receives a nice chip pass from Brown, and then his skill just takes over. He gets into a situation where he has a ton of time and a ton of open ice, and that’s not a situation you want Mitch Marner to be in if you’re the opposing team. For fun, here is another example of this, but from his OHL days in London.
Mitch anticipates the play, steals the puck and then nearly ends Dylan Strome’s career with his some sick moves.
Not only is Marner smart, fast and skilled, but he’s also tenacious. As Mike Babcock would say, he has an “elite drive train". Example:
Marner just turns on the jets and goes to work here. His speed, anticipation and tenacity lead to a scoring chance. Here is another example of his forechecking, and of course, his anticipation:
Marner is watching Petry like a hawk here, and as soon as he bobbles the puck, Mitch pounces on it and swats it into the net past Carey Price.
Conclusion
I think what we can conclude from both the data and the eye test that Mitch Marner is not only very clearly the best penalty killing forward the Maple Leafs have, but you could definitely make the case for him as a top 5 (or maybe even top 3 or 4) penalty killing forward in the entire NHL looking at his body of work this season. As I mentioned above, he ranks top-4 in the NHL among all regular penalty killers in every stat we looked at except for Shots For per 60 (where he ranks 7th), Scoring Chances Against per 60 (where he ranks 9th), and Corsi Against per 60 (where he ranks 5th). He even ranks first overall in Scoring Chances For per 60, and Shots Against per 60.
Overall, Marner has elite offensive and defensive results on the penalty kill thus far, and that makes him one of the best penalty killers in the NHL.
All statistics used in this article are as of April 3rd 2019 because I started writing this on Wednesday and I was too lazy to finish it until Thursday night after the Leafs game. All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (www.naturalstattrick.com). Check out their website if you have not already (you probably have).
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